Ukraine is currently in that awkward position we’ve all been in—sitting by the metaphorical mailbox waiting for details about the “billions of dollars” worth of US military equipment that Donald Trump promised on Monday, except instead of wondering if their package got lost in shipping, they’re trying to figure out what exactly “17 Patriots” means in the international arms dealing world.
It’s like when your aunt tells you she’s sending “some presents” for Christmas, and you’re left wondering if that means a gift card to Starbucks or a new car. Except in this case, the presents are missile defense systems, and the stakes are slightly higher than your holiday disappointment.
THE GREAT PATRIOT MYSTERY: MORE CONFUSING THAN IKEA INSTRUCTIONS
During his White House meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Monday—because apparently that’s where all the best arms deals get hammered out these days—Trump announced that an unnamed country was ready to immediately provide “17 Patriots” as part of what he called a “very big deal.”
Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR), responded with what can only be described as the military equivalent of “sir, this is a Wendy’s.”
“We don’t know exactly,” he said, which in diplomatic speak translates to “your order was unclear, please try again.” He added that Ukraine was grateful for the assistance and had reacted “positively” to the announcement, because when someone’s offering you free defense systems, you don’t look a gift Patriot in the missile bay.
Ukraine currently has six functioning Patriot air defense batteries, which can intercept fast-moving Russian cruise and ballistic missiles. It’s like having six really good bouncers at a club, but the line of troublemakers keeps getting longer.
PATRIOTS: THE MILITARY EQUIVALENT OF “SOME ASSEMBLY REQUIRED”
Here’s where things get as confusing as trying to explain TikTok to your grandmother. Skibitskyi explained that Trump’s “17 Patriots” could mean interceptor missiles, launching stations, or entire batteries—which is like saying you’re getting “17 cars” but not specifying if that means wheels, engines, or actual vehicles.
“Seventeen is a huge number if we are talking about batteries. If it’s launchers, that’s possible,” Skibitskyi noted, showing the kind of cautious optimism usually reserved for checking your lottery numbers.
Each Patriot system comes with six launchers, which makes this whole thing sound like the world’s most expensive LEGO set. Germany has agreed to provide two Patriot systems, with the Netherlands donating a third. “That would be 18 launchers for three batteries, which is close to 17,” Skibitskyi said, doing math that would make any procurement officer proud.
“The US administration and the Pentagon will give us further details,” he added, which is basically the international relations equivalent of “your call is important to us, please hold.”
TOMAHAWK TALK: THE MISSILES THAT COULD REACH MOSCOW (IF ANYONE WOULD LET THEM)
Now, here’s where things get spicier than your uncle’s political Facebook posts. The general confirmed that Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had discussed the possibility of the US providing long-range Tomahawk missiles in a call earlier in July, but no agreement had been reached.
These precision cruise missiles can strike targets 1,600km away—that’s Moscow distance, folks. Previous Ukrainian requests were rejected by the Biden administration faster than a bad Tinder match.
During a July 4th call (because nothing says “independence” like discussing missile ranges), Trump asked Zelenskyy if he could hit Moscow and St. Petersburg. According to Skibitskyi, Zelenskyy replied: “Yes, absolutely. We can if you give us the weapons”—which is the geopolitical equivalent of “I could totally dunk on you if I had platform shoes.”
But there’s a catch—there’s always a catch. Ukraine would struggle to deploy Tomahawks even if they got them. “They are not easy to use. The main launchers are combat ships or strategic bombers. We don’t have any strategic bomber aircraft,” Skibitskyi admitted, which is like being offered a Ferrari when you don’t have a driver’s license.
ATACMS: THE MISSILES WITH A REALLY AWKWARD RANGE RESTRICTION
Meanwhile, discussions are ongoing with Washington about lifting restrictions on ATACMS missiles—think of them as the Patriot’s scrappy younger sibling with a 300km range. Currently, they can only be fired into Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, not Russian territory proper, which is like being told you can throw snowballs but only at your own yard.
The Washington Post reported Tuesday that the Trump administration might allow ATACMS to be used at full range inside Russia and could send more missiles. It’s like finally being allowed to use the good china for everyday meals.
Skibitskyi explained that Russia has moved its strategic military bases more than 500km from the Ukrainian border, which is basically the military equivalent of “you can’t fire me, I quit” except with strategic repositioning. Ukraine can currently only hit these targets with kamikaze drones carrying 50kg of explosives, while ATACMS pack a 500kg payload—it’s like bringing a bazooka to a water balloon fight.
THE EUROPEAN SHOPPING SPREE CONTINUES
In what’s becoming the most expensive group buy since someone convinced their entire neighborhood to split a Costco membership, Denmark, Sweden, and the Netherlands announced Tuesday they want to participate in Trump’s plan for Europe to buy US weapons for Ukraine.
Zelenskyy said he had a “really good conversation” with Trump following Monday’s announcement, discussing how to achieve “a lasting and just peace” and stop Russian bombardment of Ukrainian cities. Because apparently, the best way to discuss peace is over a conversation about really, really expensive weapons.
So there you have it: Ukraine is waiting for the details on their weapons package like anyone who’s ever ordered something online and gotten a tracking number that just says “item processed.” Will they get missiles, launchers, or entire systems? Will the Tomahawks come with assembly instructions? Will anyone figure out how to use the really good stuff?
Stay tuned for the next episode of “International Arms Dealing: More Complicated Than Your Cable Bill,” where every order comes with fine print and customer service that makes you miss the DMV.